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顶尖外媒刊文:美国or中国,王牌在谁手里?(附中英文)
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信息来源:人大重阳微信公众号  2017-11-13

  【编者按】美国哈佛大学教授约瑟夫·奈11月2日在英国《金融时报》上发表文章在与中国的竞争中,“王牌”在美国手中》,认为美国在与中国的竞赛中还有四张王牌,并且这几张牌应该足以持续到特朗普任期结束后的更长时间。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、教授王文11月8日在英国《金融时报》上发表辩论文章,题目是《“王牌”在中国手中,为何约瑟夫·奈是错误的》两篇文章的中文版均由中国人民大学重阳金融研究院学术合作部实习生傅成昱翻译。@人大重阳 微信公众号与读者一起来分享这两篇文章。 

  

  “王牌”在中国手中,为何约瑟夫·奈是错误的 

  

  王  文 

  

  我对于约瑟夫·奈教授的深厚学识抱有崇高的敬意。然而,从学术批评的角度来说,他最近对于美国权力的乐观估计实在是显得有些过时。他认为,地理上的隔绝足以保护美国不受外来敌对势力的攻击,然而这个假设在学理上略显轻率。“独狼式”恐怖袭击事件在美国频繁发生,带来了相对于传统地缘政治冲突更加严重的伤亡与破坏,这一点奈教授并未有足够考虑。另外,美国目前确实不需要更多的石油进口,但这却使得中国在中东、俄罗斯、非洲和拉美的能源市场上受到更加热烈的欢迎。尽管美国更可能承受得起贸易战的损失,中国却日益代替美国,成为世界自由贸易的代言人。此外,随着跨境支付的发展,人民币的国际接纳程度不断提升,对美元的主导地位构成了长远意义上的挑战。 

  这也难怪为何奈教授最近撰写的“与中国的竞争中,美国仍然占据先机”(America still holds the aces in its poker game with China)一文读起来颇具20世纪现实主义的陈旧风格。他试图从地缘政治、能源安全、贸易战争、美元地位这四个角度来论证美国权力的持久性,但基于以上的现实情况,我们可以确信,约瑟夫·奈教授的这一篇文章很难适用于特朗普11月8日至10日访华时所面临的状况。 

   

  这将是特朗普上任以来首次对中国进行国事访问,也是他本人第一次踏足中国大陆。据传闻,这位标新立异的总统多年前曾来香港进行谈判,但却未能讨到什么便宜。相信自那时起,特朗普总统对中国人的商业智慧便应该有深刻体会了。而今年的4月,即便是在美国主场的佛罗里达,与习近平主席长达7个小时的马拉松式会谈也让他只能承认中国领导集体的政治智慧。 

  由于中美关系的特殊性与重要性,美国总统的历次访华都在中国外事活动安排上有着最高的优先级别。不过,特朗普的这一次访问所要面对的,是两国相对社会心理所发生的重大变化。 

  中国在对待美国总统访问的事务时,显得愈发成熟自信。近年来,在人权、贸易和两岸关系等议题上,中国对双边关系的塑造力与影响力已经与美国并驾齐驱,甚至在某些议题上中国的话语权还要更加有力。 

  

中国的这种底气,首先来源于对中美双边关系趋于稳定的基本战略判断。

  迄今为止,两国在多个领域建立了成熟的合作机制,其成果包括100多个对话渠道、近6000亿的双边贸易总额和600万人次的人员往来。各类系统性与结构性的因素决定了在未来中美关系将同时包含竞争与合作两大主题,并且对于双边关系整体趋稳的判断也不会因为美国总统的某一次来访而发生大的变化。 

  

其次,国际社会对于两国的观感在发生重大的转变。

  中国在基础设施建设、气候变化、自由贸易、国际秩序变革、扶贫援助和支持联合国事务等各个方面愈发成为世界范围内的领头羊,也因而获得了愈发广泛的国际支持。作为世界最大的贸易国、第二大的经济体和第三大的军事力量,中国在G20、“一带一路”与金砖国家合作等多边外交场合发挥着积极的国际影响——这与特朗普当选后不断退出国际合作的决策形成了鲜明对比。实际上,美国软实力的逐步走低已经受到了美国政界、学界和民间的一致批评,但换来的只有叹息。 

  

第三,对于探索有本国特色的社会主义道路,中国的自信心日益坚定。

  相比于西方社会内部的重重矛盾,中国有序治理的能力不断增强,也成为了发展中世界新的希望灯塔。即便是遭受着国内外各路质疑的特朗普,他在对法国、德国、澳大利亚、英国、日本等传统盟友多加冷落的同时,对于中国及习近平主席却表达了很强的尊敬之情。 

   

  由于陷入了复杂的国内政治冲突,特朗普此行的一大重点便是在各个领域争取中国方面的支持。商人出身的特朗普有着更强烈的现实主义色彩,更关注实际效果而非“政治正确”。有意思的是,这与中国实事求是、开拓创新、自力更生的发展理念有着很强的内在契合性。故而,在两国可以寻求理念一致的基础上,中美完全可以在能源、基建、太空、互联网、产能、工业化等各个领域构建新时期的双赢关系。 

  总而言之,中美之间相对实力和国际地位的接近程度在历史上绝无仅有。故而,对两国而言,重拾“不冲突、不对抗,相互尊重,合作共赢”的新型大国关系原则将会是未来双边关系发展的理性选择和重要方向。 

  

  附:英文原文

  

  

  Aces now in China’s hands: why Nye’s view is mistaken 

    

  Wang Wen, RDCY 

    

  

  My deep respect for Professor Joseph Nye’s scholarship does not detract from the fact that his optimistic outlook regarding US power is somewhat outdated. 

    

  He posits that geographic isolation is enough to shield the country from hostile powers. Yet this blithe assumption conveniently discounts ‘lone-wolf’ terrorist attacks, capable of visiting far greater destruction than traditional geopolitical animus. 

    

  While the US is now emancipated from fuel imports, it is precisely this need which has seen China welcomed with open arms on energy markets in the Middle East, Russia, Africa and Latin America. 

    

  While the US might fare better in a trade war, it is China that flies high the banner of global free trade. The greenback’s primacy is confronted with increasing acceptance of the renminbi as a result of cross-border payment. 

    

  Built on the four elements of geography, energy, trade and currency, Professor Nye’s assertion that “America still holds the aces in its poker game with China” reads decidedly like 20th-century realist orthodoxy, ill-suited to the conditions obtaining in China during President Trump’s visit from November 8 to 10. 

    

  The occasion represents Trump’s first state visit to China since he assumed the presidency and the first time that he has set foot on the mainland. 

    

  Rumour has it that, many years ago, the maverick businessman got his first taste of Chinese business acumen when he was unable to gain an edge during talks in Hong Kong. The same held true when, in April 2017, he learnt of the wisdom of China’s political leadership during a marathon seven-hour meeting with President Xi Jinping in Florida. 

    

  Visits by US presidents have always commanded pride of place on the Chinese diplomatic calendar, with such events accorded the highest of priorities due to the special nature and importance of the Sino-American relationship. 

    

  What sets Trump’s upcoming visit apart from those by Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama are important changes in the comparative social psychology of the two countries. 

    

  China is increasingly confident in dealing with such occasions. In recent years, its ability to shape the future of Sino-American relations has caught up with and even exceeded that of the US on such issues as human rights, trade and the Taiwan strait, where the US is deliberately obstructive. 

    

  This new-found sense of self is to be seen, first and foremost, in fundamental strategic judgments regarding the stability of the Sino-US binary. Thus far, the two countries have established mature mechanisms for bilateral co-operation in many fields, underscored by over 100 channels for dialogue, almost $600bn in bilateral trade, and personnel exchange annually amounting to 6m. 

    

  Although the Thucydides trap still haunts bilateral relations between the two countries, systematic and structural factors have determined that the future will be marked by coexistence between competition and co-operation. This sense of general stability will not be changed, for better or worse, by a single presidential visit. 

    

  Second, the way both countries are perceived by international society has undergone a subtle shift. China has enjoyed broad support for its championship of such just causes as infrastructure construction, climate change, free trade, reforming the international order, poverty reduction and supporting UN endeavours. In its capacity as the world’s largest trade nation, the second-largest economy and third largest military power, China has exercised positive international influence in such multilateral realms as G20, Belt and Road Initiative and Brics. 

    

  This contrasts starkly with US post-election withdrawal from global affairs. The steady decline in US soft power is both bemoaned and critiqued by politicians, scholars and members of civil society alike. 

    

  Third, China is ever committed to its mission of blazing a path of socialism with Chinese characteristics. In contrast with the internecine conflict rending Western society, China’s increasing ability to impose orderly governance is a beacon of hope for the developing world. 

    

  Rebuffed by Trump, who is facing mounting criticism over his leadership both at home and abroad, traditional US allies such as France, Germany, Australia, Japan and the UK have heaped praise upon China and President Xi Jinping. 

    

  Embroiled in domestic political strife, Trump’s visit is underscored by a marked thirst for Chinese support in all areas. A businessman by trade, Trump’s realist outlook has lent itself to a refutation of ‘political correctness’ and a focus on the end result. This resonates with China’s founding principles of seeking truth from facts,innovation and self-reliance. 

    

  Given this convergence, there is much scope for building a ‘win-win’ relationship in such areas as energy, infrastructure, space, the internet, productive capacity and industrialisation. 

    

  In sum, relative Sino-US power and international status has reached unprecedented levels. Going forward, the binary will be informed by the new governing principles in big-power relations, namely ‘no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect, and win-win co-operation’. 

    

  Wang Wen is executive dean and professor at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY). 

  

  在与中国的竞争中,“王牌”在美国手中 

  约瑟夫·奈(JosephNye) 

  特朗普总统与习近平主席:白宫方面威胁进行的贸易战,但这会对两国同时造成严重危害。 

  在上周举行的中共十九大后,观察人士对习主席报告的分析指出,中国已经成为一个"强大而有力"的权力体,"一带一路"倡议也促进着中国在世界范围内经济与政治权力的攀升。 

  美国曾是世界上绝大多数国家最重要的贸易伙伴,也是各国最关键的资金来源国。然而在当今世界,中国已经成为近100个国家的最大贸易伙伴;相比之下,只有57个国家与美国的贸易占据该国外贸的第一位。此外,中国计划在下一个十年为国际基础设施建设提供超过1万亿美元的贷款,而美国却在削减对外援助计划,并试图减少在世界银行的持股份额。那么,相比于一个不断衰弱的美国,中国是否如某些分析家指出的那样,在地缘政治的竞争中占据了优势地位呢? 

  假如,有一位来自火星的访客愿意为这场竞争下注的话,我相信如果他足够明智,就应该还是倾向于美国:毕竟在我看来,美国在与中国的竞赛中还有四张王牌,并且这几张牌应该足以持续到特朗普任期结束后的更长时间。 

  第一是地理优势。美国两面环海,并且虽然有特朗普政府退出北美自贸区协定的疑云,周边国家可能还是倾向于对美国保持友好态度。中国则有着14个陆地邻国,并且与印度、日本、越南有着领土争端,对其软实力的发展构成了限制。 

  第二是能源优势。十年前的美国似乎只有依赖能源进口这一条出路,而今天,页岩气革命的发展则使得美国已然转型成为能源出口国;甚至,根据国际能源署预测,北美会在未来十年实现能源的充分自给。同时,中国愈发依赖于中东的能源进口,而且许多石油是从南海——这一区域美国的军事存在十分突出——运至中国的,故而能源风险确实存在。 

  这种能源供应的脆弱性迫使中国在三个选项中做出选择:避免与美国的海上军事冲突,以保障能源供应航线的安全;继续推动建设来自俄罗斯的天然气运输管道;开发新的、可再生的能源,减少内燃机的使用,从而降低对石油资源的依赖。中国正在第二和第三个选项的道路上大力发展,但是降低能源脆弱性的过程还需要一定的时间。 

  第三张牌是贸易。中美两国较高的相互依赖程度决定了这种"互相毁灭"式的经济关系(mutual assure deconomic destruction),双方都保持着高度的审慎。故而不难理解,特朗普政府所威胁要发动的贸易战必然会对中美两国同时造成严重危害。但是如果这种审慎被抛弃,那么由于中国更依赖于这种双边交流,中国在贸易战中的损失预期会大于美国。如兰德公司预测,在太平洋上进行一次无核战争将会消耗美国5%的GDP,而对于中国,这个数字可能是25%。 

  最后,美元是美国潜藏着的一张王牌。各国政府的外汇储备中,只有1.1%是人民币,美元则占据了64%的比重。一年前,国际货币基金组织(IMF)宣布人民币作为第五种货币纳入特别提款权货币篮子,这带来了民族主义情绪的高涨:许多人将这一事件看作中国货币逐步超越美元的一个重要时间点。但事实上,人民币在国际支付中的份额已经从2015年的2.8%滑落至如今的1.9%。究其原因,能够被国际接纳的储备货币需要该国有高度发展的资本市场、可信的调控政策以及法治建设。对中国而言,这几个维度都面临着国际市场的怀疑。 

  当然,一个鲁莽的总统即便有一手好牌,也会打的一塌糊涂。但是这四张王牌很有可能在特朗普任期结束之后仍然发挥着作用。所以我认为,相较于宣称美国的时代即将结束、中国主导的国际秩序即将到来,我们更应该关注这些隐藏的、影响世界权力结构的因素。 

  

  以下为约瑟夫·奈发表的英文文章截图: